Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1b8…ed14 crypto 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$713 (-1%) realized −$710 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate81%216W / 52L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days−$263
14 days−$263
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$158
other 11% −$154
sports 3% −$232
world 0% −$220
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 24% -12.1%
≤30d 37 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 24% -12.1%
≤90d 37 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 24% -12.1%
all 268 -8.4% -17.1% 81% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 10% -10.6%
10% -25.1% 5% -19.1%
15% -32.3% 4% -26.9%
20% -38.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$52 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$710
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses216 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage202d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $500 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $501 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$31 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $601 +$43 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$37 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $501 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$54 +11%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $241 +$17 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $301 −$297 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,001 +$29 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $1,231 +$33 +3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,101 +$46 +4%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1,001 −$6 -1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $224 +$5 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $215 +$9 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $280 −$68 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 06 $400 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 27 $20 +$34 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12PM ET Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 27 $10 +$24 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9AM ET Jan 27 $76 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY No 98¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.60 · official $96.61 (match) · 911 history records