Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1bc…ad0d world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$4
other 11% $0
sports 10% $0
politics 10% +$1
economics 7% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 4% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 7% -10.3%
all 38 +0.7% -8.9% 32% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage259d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $46 −$1 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $45 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $27 −$4 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $52 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jan 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $45 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 19 $21 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Septe Oct 17 $1 $0 -1%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $12 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $33 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $14 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $50 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $50 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $11 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $15 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $19 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 32h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $41 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $15 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $30 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $50 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $49 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $23 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $27 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.60 · official $15.69 (match) · 128 history records