Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb1bc…794c crypto 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
economics 0% −$10
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 22 -4.6% -13.7% 86% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage123d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 7? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 17? Mar 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? Mar 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 3? Mar 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? Feb 25 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 22? Feb 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 21 $5,018 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? Feb 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 11? Feb 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 10? Feb 14 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $11 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $16 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? SELL No 97¢ $20 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $21 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,013 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $11 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,018 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 121d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $22 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $22 127d
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.13 · official $15.13 (match) · 43 history records