Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1bf…26ff sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$20
politics 38% +$13
sports 5% −$7
finance 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 27 -17.9% -25.7% 26% 11% -40.8%
all 29 -16.5% -24.4% 31% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 10% -10.4%
10% -31.6% 10% -19.0%
15% -38.2% 10% -26.8%
20% -44.3% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage350d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $112 $107 −$5 (-5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will Club Bolívar vs. Club Independiente Petrolero end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 $0 +50%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Apr 21 $2 $0 -25%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 $0 +4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $1 $0 -12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 20 $4 $0 -8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $1 $0 -6%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 20 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 20 $3 −$2 -67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $2 $0 +10%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $1 $0 -36%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $2 −$1 -66%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Santa Cruz: Eric Vanshelboim vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tallahassee: Liam Draxl vs Kaylan Bigun Apr 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 15 $0 +$1 +133%
Santa Cruz: Franco Roncadelli vs Pedro Sakamoto Apr 15 $10 $0 +3%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Jul 09 $408 +$11 +3%
Spain snap election called in 2025? Jul 05 $394 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 3m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 6m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 10m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 14m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 30m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $29 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.34 · official $110.90 · 186 history records