Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1c1…bf29 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$26 (+46%) realized +$15 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +187% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +149% what you keep after slip
Net edge+149%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$6
sports 21% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+159.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +187.0% +159.6% 50% 50% +162.3%
≤30d 2 +187.0% +159.6% 50% 50% +162.3%
≤90d 2 +187.0% +159.6% 50% 50% +162.3%
all 2 +187.0% +159.6% 50% 50% +162.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +159.6% 50% +162.3%
10% +134.8% 50% +137.2%
15% +112.1% 50% +114.3%
20% +91.3% 50% +93.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +190% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +187% · $-wt +190% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$7 · ×4.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.84 per $1 lost it wins $4.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+35%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$35 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.86 · official $52.33 (match) · 5 history records