Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb1c1…dc41 crypto 872 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (237 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$133 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate54%511W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day236.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$260
14 days−$414
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (237 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -24.3% -31.5% 49% 19% -19.7%
≤30d 938 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 12% -15.5%
≤90d 938 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 12% -15.5%
all 938 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 12% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover236.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 12% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 6% -23.6%
15% -36.4% 4% -31.0%
20% -42.7% 3% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses511 / 427
Open positions1
Markets (closed)938 / 872
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day236.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 0¢ 88¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 43¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs REBORN - Map 3 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records