Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb1c2…5db2 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,856 (-12%) realized −$13,845 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%81W / 103L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$619per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$16,176
other 8% −$4,766
sports 0% −$183
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 30% -26.6%
≤30d 161 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 41% -26.1%
≤90d 184 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 38% -26.8%
all 184 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 38% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 38% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 33% -33.8%
15% -34.7% 22% -40.2%
20% -41.1% 16% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$801) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$353 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$13,845
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses81 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage36d
Avg bet$619
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,944 −$1,034 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,237 +$235 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3,697 −$1,808 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2,271 +$180 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2,446 +$165 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2,443 +$727 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1,642 −$376 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $616 +$117 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,592 −$1,045 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3,091 +$384 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2,068 +$558 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,031 +$511 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2,980 −$510 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,650 −$600 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,648 −$353 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,224 −$200 -16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $9,707 −$4,764 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $269 −$269 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,482 −$1,229 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1,333 +$569 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $607 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,597 −$82 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $903 +$38 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $721 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $804 −$62 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $462 +$266 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $969 −$454 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,069 −$87 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $819 +$95 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $81 −$80 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $93 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $383 −$362 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $381 +$96 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $295 +$92 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $310 −$19 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $249 +$65 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $222 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 28 $225 −$195 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 28 $223 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $360 −$344 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $524 −$88 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 28 $455 −$86 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $638 −$174 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $509 +$173 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $105 +$349 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $76 +$112 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $204 −$62 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $131 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $76 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $408 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $275 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $313 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $118 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $900 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $486 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $980 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $210 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $513 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $514 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $389 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $235 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1,010 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $204 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $206 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $717 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $304 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $113 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $409 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $371 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $147 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $822 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $202 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $181 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $478 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.07 · official $4.07 (match) · 778 history records