Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c3…d933 world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
politics 21% +$2
other 14% $0
sports 9% −$11
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 10% -10.1%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 6% -9.5%
all 73 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage486d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $23 −$4 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $84 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $4 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $46 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $46 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $46 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $48 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.59 · official $45.59 (match) · 288 history records