Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c4…59cf crypto 360 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%222W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$59
politics 4% −$27
finance 3% +$22
other 2% −$15
world 2% +$29
tech 1% −$20
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +40.8% +27.4% 100% 58% +33.9%
≤30d 14 +41.0% +27.6% 100% 57% +37.1%
≤90d 155 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 39% -11.4%
all 360 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 40% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -13.5%
10% -24.6% 27% -21.8%
15% -31.8% 19% -29.4%
20% -38.5% 13% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses222 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)360 / 360
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 360 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 −$7 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 08 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 08 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 08 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 08 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 07 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 07 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 07 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 11d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 30d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 30d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 30d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 13? SELL No 2¢ $1 33d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1024 history records