Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c7…1835 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$149 (-35%) realized −$147 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$122
other 28% −$59
world 9% −$9
finance 4% +$3
economics 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 0% -54.5%
≤30d 27 -80.6% -82.4% 11% 0% -54.5%
≤90d 36 -66.6% -69.8% 19% 6% -52.3%
all 37 -64.4% -67.8% 22% 8% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.8% 8% -50.1%
10% -70.9% 3% -54.9%
15% -73.7% 3% -59.3%
20% -76.3% 3% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage160d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Alex Baena: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -60%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -24%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Apr 03 $34 −$34 -99%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Apr 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $31 +$78 +247%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Apr 03 $15 +$1 +8%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $17 +$3 +19%
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Mar 07 $15 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 0¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Alex Baena: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.46 · official $8.46 (match) · 65 history records