Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1c7…4876 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+2%) realized +$148 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$223
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$127
crypto 32% +$49
world 8% +$277
finance 4% −$82
politics 4% +$91
other 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 40% +10.5%
≤90d 56 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 30% -8.9%
all 56 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 30% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 30% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 16% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 12% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage77d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $304 $332 +$28 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 78¢ 89¢ $143 $165 +$22 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 80¢ 99¢ $85 $106 +$21 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $265 −$38 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $378 +$199 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$64 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $173 −$23 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $87 +$40 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $248 +$37 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $123 +$15 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $175 −$134 -76%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $28 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $91 +$34 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $69 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 21 $40 $0 +1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 19 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 19 $86 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 19 $78 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 19 $111 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 19 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 19 $46 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 19 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 19 $356 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 18 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 18 $62 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 18 $133 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 18 $112 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 18 $66 −$6 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 18 $322 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 18 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 18 $102 −$78 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 18 $133 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 18 $107 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 18 $137 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 18 $385 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 18 $65 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 18 $88 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 18 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 18 $66 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 18 $115 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 18 $139 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 18 $47 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 18 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 18 $75 +$82 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $112 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 18 $18 +$6 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$51 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $25 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $64 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $304 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $185 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $578 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $149 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $32 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $86 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 54¢ $38 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 80¢ $85 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $21 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $48 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $21 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $44 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $59 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $59 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.92 · official $607.92 (match) · 710 history records