Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1c8…023a crypto 725 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,608 (-1%) realized −$1,604 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%513W / 211L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,165
7 days+$1,580
14 days+$973
30 days+$973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$2,649
other 28% +$913
crypto 13% −$140
world 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +2.2% -7.5% 74% 68% -5.9%
≤30d 90 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 62% -7.6%
≤90d 186 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 48% -10.8%
all 724 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% -11.1%
10% -18.5% 23% -19.6%
15% -26.4% 14% -27.4%
20% -33.6% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$85 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized−$1,604
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses513 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions1
Markets (closed)724 / 725
History coverage123d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 724 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 78¢ $519 $516 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $130 +$27 +21%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $32 +$8 +25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,795 −$127 -7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $896 +$204 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $705 +$187 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,687 +$129 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,505 +$179 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $736 +$256 +35%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $227 +$104 +46%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,506 +$218 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $168 +$32 +19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $855 +$158 +18%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $171 −$51 -30%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $160 −$53 -33%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $106 −$105 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $8 +$2 +25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $85 +$15 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $102 +$13 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $81 +$19 +23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $83 −$56 -67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $79 +$21 +27%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $78 +$22 +28%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $77 +$23 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $104 +$26 +25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $343 +$163 +48%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $50 +$21 +42%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $504 +$40 +8%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $399 −$399 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,043 +$320 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,457 +$174 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $498 +$101 +20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $622 −$390 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $716 −$716 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $412 −$412 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $492 +$108 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $801 +$199 +25%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $498 +$101 +20%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $653 −$405 -62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $574 +$125 +22%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $588 −$299 -51%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,515 +$508 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $425 −$293 -69%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $427 −$191 -45%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $720 −$292 -41%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $794 +$210 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $513 2m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $1,045 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 90¢ $856 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $863 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $157 18h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $39 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $130 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $32 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 78¢ $839 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 77¢ $828 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $244 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $32 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $8 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $21 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $165 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $9 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $8 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $1,307 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $93 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $326 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $432 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $658 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $199 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $160 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $800 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $896 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.56 · official $515.56 (match) · 2114 history records