Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1d2…c938 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+16%) realized +$43 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% +16.7%
≤30d 2 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% +16.7%
≤90d 2 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% +16.7%
all 2 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 50% +16.7%
10% +8.2% 50% +5.5%
15% -2.2% 50% -4.7%
20% -11.8% 50% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$27 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 98¢ $145 $238 +$93 (+64%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 54¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $74 −$27 -36%
Valencia vs. Barcelona: O/U 175.5 Jun 18 $67 +$67 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.37 · official $219.01 · 9 history records