Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1da…4ce4 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-51%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$128
14 days−$128
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$141
other 36% −$112
sports 13% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -93.7% -94.3% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤30d 6 -93.7% -94.3% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤90d 16 -63.8% -67.2% 25% 25% -87.7%
all 16 -63.8% -67.2% 25% 25% -87.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.2% 25% -87.7%
10% -70.3% 19% -88.9%
15% -73.2% 12% -90.0%
20% -75.8% 0% -91.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage57d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 21 $110 −$109 -99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova Apr 21 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 21 $6 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 40m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 51¢ $20 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $110 57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova SELL Dalma Galfi 100¢ $22 57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Dalma Galfi 69¢ $15 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 57d
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records