Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1db…c0af sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$414
other 15% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.7% +17.3% 83% 67% +21.4%
≤30d 6 +29.7% +17.3% 83% 67% +21.4%
≤90d 6 +29.7% +17.3% 83% 67% +21.4%
all 6 +29.7% +17.3% 83% 67% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 67% +21.4%
10% +6.1% 50% +9.8%
15% -4.2% 17% -0.8%
20% -13.5% 17% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$2 · ×43.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×218.03 per $1 lost it wins $218.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $607 +$152 +25%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $200 +$215 +108%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$2 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 51m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 55m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $759 57m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 58m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $205 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY 47¢ $98 24h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY 47¢ $102 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 39¢ $98 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $98 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $100 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records