Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1dd…64a3 world 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 5% -9.7%
all 47 -0.6% -10.1% 28% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage274d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $66 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $73 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $14 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $4 $0 +5%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 07 $22 $0 -2%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 06 $4 $0 +5%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 06 $1 $0 -12%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 21m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $32 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $32 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $36 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.96 · official $5.96 (match) · 155 history records