Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1dd…2341 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1
other 23% +$1
sports 11% −$5
politics 7% +$10
finance 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% −$4
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -6.0% -14.9% 40% 7% -9.9%
all 45 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 7% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage488d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $60 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $41 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $6 $0 +8%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $6 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $19 $0 +0%
Ole Miss vs. Auburn Feb 25 $19 $0 +0%
George Washington vs. Loyola Chicago Feb 25 $35 $0 +0%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Feb 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $5 +$10 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 3h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $19 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $12 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $40 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $40 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 23d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 23d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 23d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $7 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $38 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $39 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 125 history records