Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1df…309d world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$660 (+8%) realized +$630 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$337
14 days+$423
30 days+$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$423
other 33% +$147
politics 10% +$37
sports 3% +$74
finance 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 30 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 40% +0.8%
≤90d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 39% +0.6%
all 33 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 39% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% +0.6%
10% -21.1% 18% -9.0%
15% -28.7% 9% -17.8%
20% -35.7% 3% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$14 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2,313
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)33 / 47
History coverage52d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $630 $649 +$19 (+3%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 81¢ 88¢ $389 $419 +$29 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 74¢ $278 $288 +$10 (+3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $248 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 75¢ 78¢ $201 $208 +$7 (+4%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $211 $193 −$18 (-9%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 54¢ 65¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $69 $53 −$16 (-23%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-13%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 28¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 24 $262 +$29 +11%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 24 $35 +$6 +17%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 23 $142 −$10 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $142 +$7 +5%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 21 $255 −$4 -2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 21 $681 +$158 +23%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $230 −$129 -56%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $96 +$18 +19%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 20 $28 +$10 +36%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $83 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $724 +$239 +33%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -72%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -75%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$37 +75%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $153 +$68 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $68 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $112 +$9 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $205 +$7 +4%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 04 $513 +$66 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $135 +$6 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $248 +$33 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $128 +$25 +20%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $19 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $153 +$9 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $510 +$14 +3%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 24 $308 +$41 +13%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 23 $258 +$14 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 13 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 93¢ $69 1h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $50 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 93¢ $50 1h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $51 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 93¢ $51 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 71¢ $25 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 93¢ $25 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 35¢ $25 1h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? SELL Yes 93¢ $40 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $61 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 35¢ $61 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $51 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 37¢ $51 3h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 75¢ $202 15h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 91¢ $71 15h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $132 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $54 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $15 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 20¢ $15 20h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $100 21h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 20¢ $25 23h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 25h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 89¢ $25 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,313.15 · official $2,313.16 (match) · 190 history records