Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1e1…c2f6 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+5%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
politics 32% $0
economics 13% $0
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 25% -4.6%
all 4 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 25% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 25% -4.6%
10% -11.6% 25% -13.7%
15% -20.1% 0% -22.1%
20% -27.9% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $3 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 38d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 64d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $2 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $3 74d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 81¢ $2 80d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.73 (match) · 9 history records