trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $5,201 | $3,481 | −$1,719 (-33%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 26¢ | $1,092 | $1,525 | +$432 (+40%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | $580 | $945 | +$366 (+63%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,024 | $923 | −$101 (-10%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $857 | $782 | −$75 (-9%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $788 | $645 | −$144 (-18%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $480 | $340 | −$140 (-29%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $383 | $329 | −$54 (-14%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $368 | $326 | −$42 (-11%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 8¢ | $43 | $121 | +$78 (+183%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $29 | $22 | −$7 (-23%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Jun 11 | $400 | −$15 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| all | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.9% | 0% | -12.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -21.2% | 0% | -21.2% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -28.8% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -35.8% |