Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb1e9…ed50 crypto 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$202 (-0%) realized −$197 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate89%222W / 28L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days−$268
14 days−$328
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$364
sports 1% +$55
other 0% +$43
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +5.8% -4.2% 93% 9% -10.6%
≤30d 241 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 241 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 5% -9.8%
all 250 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$54 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses222 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)250 / 253
History coverage116d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $299 +$4 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $299 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$73 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $240 +$2 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $276 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 +$29 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$21 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $110 +$40 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $668 −$668 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $700 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $700 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $699 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $700 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $700 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $6 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $299 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $299 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $300 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $240 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $250 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $250 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $86 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.05 · official $25.05 (match) · 777 history records