Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1eb…48a7 crypto 111 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-6%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%45W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -16.5%
≤30d 111 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -16.5%
≤90d 111 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -16.5%
all 111 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 40% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 36% -24.5%
15% -38.5% 28% -31.8%
20% -44.5% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses45 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $59 +$50 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$60 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$35 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$36 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$28 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$12 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$36 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$32 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$37 +829%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$27 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$41 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$47 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$13 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $59 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $50 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $46 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $32 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $32 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $24 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records