Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1ed…8168 other 67 markets active 8h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$165 (-5%) realized +$55 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$103
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$75
sports 48% −$21
crypto 3% −$55
world 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 58% -5.2%
≤30d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 55% -8.3%
≤90d 50 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 54% -8.3%
all 50 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 54% -8.3%
10% -19.4% 48% -17.1%
15% -27.2% 42% -25.1%
20% -34.3% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$46 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions17
Markets (closed)50 / 67
History coverage62d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $125 $92 −$33 (-26%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-19%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$37 (-75%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-81%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-81%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 3¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-79%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $58 +$34 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 +$38 +61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 +$42 +74%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 +$23 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $129 +$67 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 +$67 +99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $236 −$234 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 +$20 +29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $258 +$42 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $41 +$54 +133%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $45 −$19 -42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $122 +$78 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$68 +216%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $81 +$15 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 +$10 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 +$121 +204%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$29 -54%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$51 -77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$29 -74%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$5 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $53 +$58 +109%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $10 +$16 +163%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 8h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $28 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $53 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $8 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $73 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $196 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $134 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.08 · official $388.47 (match) · 196 history records