Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1f0…4f71 crypto 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+28%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$18
other 41% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 46% +13.7%
≤90d 13 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 46% +13.7%
all 13 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 46% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 46% +13.7%
10% -25.8% 46% +2.8%
15% -33.0% 38% -7.1%
20% -39.6% 31% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$18 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$34 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$30 +116%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $101 +$103 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records