Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f0…037a crypto 703 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate43%301W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$140
politics 6% −$2
world 5% −$3
sports 3% −$7
other 3% −$13
culture 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.5% +9.0% 62% 62% +15.7%
≤30d 12 +20.1% +8.7% 58% 58% +16.0%
≤90d 649 +0.4% -9.1% 45% 23% -11.9%
all 703 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 21% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 21% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 19% -20.3%
15% -26.0% 19% -28.0%
20% -33.3% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses301 / 402
Open positions0
Markets (closed)703 / 703
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 703 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +198%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $2 +$3 +122%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 12 $2 +$3 +124%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 12 $2 +$3 +110%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $2 +$3 +114%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 10 $3 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 10 $2 +$3 +110%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 10 $2 +$3 +146%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $2 +$3 +110%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 10 $2 +$3 +134%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 09 $2 +$3 +190%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 08 $2 +$3 +212%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 06 $2 +$3 +122%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 04 $3 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 04 $2 +$3 +181%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 04 $2 +$3 +140%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 02 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 14d
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 31d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 33d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 37d
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 37d
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 37d
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3410 history records