Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1f2…a594 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$63 (+10%) realized +$70 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$7
sports 38% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.3% +3.4% 75% 75% +15.8%
≤30d 4 +14.3% +3.4% 75% 75% +15.8%
≤90d 4 +14.3% +3.4% 75% 75% +15.8%
all 4 +14.3% +3.4% 75% 75% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 75% +15.8%
10% -6.5% 50% +4.8%
15% -15.5% 50% -5.4%
20% -23.8% 50% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.44 per $1 lost it wins $14.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +80%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $200 +$44 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 15h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $99 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.88 · official $350.88 (match) · 15 history records