Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f6…866c crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-35%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$19
world 18% −$20
sports 12% $0
culture 8% −$10
other 4% $0
finance 4% −$5
economics 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 32% -36.0%
≤30d 22 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 32% -36.0%
≤90d 25 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 28% -40.1%
all 33 -37.0% -43.0% 27% 21% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 21% -61.5%
10% -48.5% 21% -65.2%
15% -53.5% 18% -68.6%
20% -58.0% 15% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)33 / 46
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cutting Through Rocks win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98 Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at th Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.58 · official $23.58 (match) · 93 history records