Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1f6…f08b world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$133 (+3%) realized +$136 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
sports 38% +$110
other 19% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 75% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 12 +2.6% -7.1% 58% 0% -7.0%
all 12 +2.6% -7.1% 58% 0% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 0% -7.0%
10% -16.0% 0% -15.9%
15% -24.1% 0% -24.1%
20% -31.6% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage79d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $290 $287 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists Jun 14 $476 +$14 +3%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $470 +$5 +1%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $489 +$41 +8%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $487 $0 +0%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) May 04 $435 +$21 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 03 $434 $0 +0%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 21 $394 +$18 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $395 $0 +0%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 20 $365 +$23 +6%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $364 $0 +0%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) Apr 08 $203 +$7 +4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $207 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $290 1h
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $476 6d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $475 6d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $470 6d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $489 18d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $487 18d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $487 18d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 95¢ $435 47d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $434 47d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $434 48d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $394 60d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $395 61d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $395 61d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Antalyaspor 94¢ $365 63d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 99¢ $364 63d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $364 63d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 96¢ $58 78d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 96¢ $48 78d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 96¢ $48 78d
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 96¢ $48 78d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $104 78d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $104 78d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $207 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.85 · official $286.70 (match) · 30 history records