Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb1f7…ec75 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-20%) realized −$6 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4
crypto 39% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.2% +146.3% 100% 100% +146.3%
≤30d 4 +29.5% +17.1% 50% 50% -0.2%
≤90d 18 +13.4% +2.6% 28% 28% -9.6%
all 18 +13.4% +2.6% 28% 28% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 28% -9.6%
10% -7.2% 28% -18.2%
15% -16.2% 28% -26.1%
20% -24.4% 22% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 36¢ $61 $35 −$27 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$35 +172%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$19 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$12 -77%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$4 +725%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 19 $4 −$3 -69%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$1 -73%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 19 $2 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $62 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 11d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 65d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 29¢ $4 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.53 · official $33.58 (match) · 38 history records