Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f7…6d66 politics 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%56W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$6
other 25% −$7
world 25% −$82
sports 10% −$6
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 3% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 163 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -11.5%
all 251 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -11.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses56 / 195
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage141d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,149 −$80 -7%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $11 $0 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $26 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $15 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 25 $15 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $22 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $41 $0 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 24 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $92 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $930 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,149 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $7 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 6h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 6h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 27h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 30h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 30h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 31h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 31h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 33h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 33h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 36h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 37h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 37h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 38h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 38h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 14d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1290 history records