Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f7…1b2f world 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%44W / 72L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3
other 23% −$1
politics 19% −$2
sports 15% +$1
crypto 3% +$2
economics 3% $0
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +9.0% -1.4% 23% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 83 +3.3% -6.5% 36% 2% -9.5%
all 116 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses44 / 72
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage466d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $58 −$7 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $119 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $197 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $185 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $240 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $201 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $195 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $112 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $116 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $78 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $31 +$9 +29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $53 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $194 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $172 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $30 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $57 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 18h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $95 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $84 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $95 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $66 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $95 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $55 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $55 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.29 · official $57.28 (match) · 476 history records