Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f8…dba6 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$6
other 28% +$2
sports 26% +$4
world 3% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 40% -11.4%
≤30d 42 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 40% -11.4%
≤90d 42 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 40% -11.4%
all 42 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 40% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -19.9%
15% -23.9% 29% -27.6%
20% -31.3% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+111%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +174%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +676%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +156%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +364%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1 −$1 -73%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 21m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 35m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 36m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.33 · official $11.33 (match) · 100 history records