Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

B1 0xb1f9…8e63 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$34 (+11%) realized +$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+14.0%	+3.1%	83%	67%	+0.2%
≤30d	6	+14.0%	+3.1%	83%	67%	+0.2%
≤90d	6	+14.0%	+3.1%	83%	67%	+0.2%
all	6	+14.0%	+3.1%	83%	67%	+0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.1%	67%	+0.2%
10%	-6.7%	33%	-9.4%
15%	-15.8%	17%	-18.1%
20%	-24.0%	17%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 23	$102	+$25	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 23	$51	−$14	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$7	+14%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 23	$70	+$3	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 23	$25	+$4	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$8	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$127	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$51	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$51	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$37	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$51	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$58	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$51	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$74	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$70	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$15	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records