Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb1fa…1a14 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37,996 (-6%) realized −$23,516 · open −$14,480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 87L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,388per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9,804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$36,013
finance 7% −$28,701
other 7% −$33,868
crypto 4% −$12,267
sports 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -14.2% -22.4% 20% 10% -60.0%
≤90d 83 -68.2% -71.3% 12% 7% -18.8%
all 103 -23.2% -30.6% 16% 11% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 11% -19.1%
10% -37.2% 10% -26.9%
15% ← realistic here -43.3% 5% -33.9%
20% -48.8% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$1,594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,605 vs −$2,321 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$9,804
Realized−$23,516
Unrealized−$14,480
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions10
Markets (closed)103 / 113
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$5,388
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $12,064 $7,762 −$4,302 (-36%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11,473 $1,402 −$10,071 (-88%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $220 $110 −$110 (-50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $96 $75 −$21 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$10 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 09 $3 $0 -12%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $94 −$91 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,000 +$144 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $24,896 −$23,474 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $1,123 −$1,083 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $2,393 −$2,319 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $1,000 +$3,860 +386%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 17 $673 −$673 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $9,224 −$9,224 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 05 $13,862 −$4,671 -34%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 02 $318 −$291 -92%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $7,616 −$7,256 -95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $690 on May 1? May 01 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? May 01 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $17,181 −$15,606 -91%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 28 $16,971 −$16,719 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $171 −$142 -83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $1,961 −$1,717 -88%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $383 −$119 -31%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 27 $277 −$257 -93%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $281 −$261 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $26 −$24 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $107 −$88 -82%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 27 $3,275 −$3,196 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $41,858 −$41,636 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 20 $8,107 −$8,085 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 20 $6,765 −$6,750 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 20 $15,423 −$13,679 -89%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $2,770 −$1,663 -60%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $2,223 −$282 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $2,333 −$127 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $2,521 +$114 +4%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $26 −$23 -86%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 07 $332 +$83 +25%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 07 $2,956 +$34 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $50 11m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $250 23m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $46 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $158 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,336 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $249 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $380 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $3,800 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $256 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,803.66 · official $9,803.66 (match) · 3500 history records