Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1fb…3f95 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$461 (+12%) realized +$461 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$140
14 days+$341
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$315
crypto 27% +$186
other 18% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 47% -4.9%
≤30d 54 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 48% -0.9%
≤90d 54 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 48% -0.9%
all 54 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 48% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 48% -0.9%
10% -14.2% 48% -10.4%
15% -22.5% 44% -19.0%
20% -30.1% 41% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$40 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage9d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $54 +$86 +158%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $101 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $202 +$136 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $243 +$157 +64%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 +$167 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$71 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$95 -94%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$30 +150%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $152 +$181 +118%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$46 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$25 +83%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$44 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 +$57 +140%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$29 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $91 +$22 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$28 -55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$15 +50%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $31 +$38 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$25 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 12 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$16 -79%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $128 −$6 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $128 −$9 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $128 −$7 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $65 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$31 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $140 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $54 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $143 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 34¢ $166 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $339 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $30 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $202 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $400 24h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $35 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $243 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $102 30h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 33¢ $51 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 4¢ $26 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 9¢ $26 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $472 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 10¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL 3¢ $7 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $333 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $152 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $73 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 4¢ $4 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 44¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $163.07 · 123 history records