Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1fd…4434 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$75 (+7%) realized +$131 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.3% +8.8% 62% 56% +0.8%
≤30d 16 +20.3% +8.8% 62% 56% +0.8%
≤90d 16 +20.3% +8.8% 62% 56% +0.8%
all 16 +20.3% +8.8% 62% 56% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 56% +0.8%
10% -1.6% 56% -8.9%
15% -11.1% 56% -17.7%
20% -19.8% 44% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 61¢ 6¢ $61 $6 −$56 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$45 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$58 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$51 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $64 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$52 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $64 +$39 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$93 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$28 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.37 · official $340.37 · 25 history records