Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1fd…0e25 weather 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$185 (-3%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
politics 38% −$1
sports 8% +$14
world 8% −$198
weather 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 23 -3.7% -12.9% 61% 4% -14.0%
all 34 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 3% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -12.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -21.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage137d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 22? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 22? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $703 −$3 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $109 +$4 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $68 +$11 +16%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $386 +$4 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $482 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $819 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $233 −$2 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $184 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $215 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $107 +$1 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $320 $0 +0%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February? Mar 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $109 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Feb 28 $322 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 15 $76 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of January? Feb 15 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 25d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $199 57d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 59d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $344 59d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $189 61d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $156 61d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $29 61d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $80 62d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 90¢ $80 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 62d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 7¢ $37 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.76 · official $48.76 (match) · 320 history records