Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1fe…24c5 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$998 (+7%) realized +$1,012 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%83W / 36L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$435
14 days+$551
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$904
sports 40% +$2
crypto 2% −$21
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.4% -1.0% 82% 82% +4.4%
≤30d 52 +0.3% -9.3% 71% 71% -9.8%
≤90d 119 +5.0% -5.0% 70% 68% -3.6%
all 119 +5.0% -5.0% 70% 68% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 68% -3.6%
10% -14.1% 58% -12.9%
15% -22.4% 41% -21.3%
20% -30.0% 26% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$98 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized+$1,012
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses83 / 36
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage74d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Valencia vs. Barcelona Valencia 75¢ 67¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$65 +32%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$46 +46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$22 +11%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $201 +$40 +20%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $101 +$28 +27%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$40 +40%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$48 +48%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $101 +$33 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $303 +$51 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $111 +$40 +36%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$1 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $302 +$232 +77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $405 −$400 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$64 -64%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $707 +$328 +46%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 23 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 +$96 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,010 −$834 -83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $203 +$189 +93%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $493 +$236 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $342 +$149 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $223 +$72 +32%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $303 +$136 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $201 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $201 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 42h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 75¢ $101 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $101 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $201 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $201 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $101 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $101 4d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 53¢ $101 4d
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 100¢ $164 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 5d
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 61¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $123 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $201 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $201 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $101 6d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 83¢ $201 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $201 6d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 78¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.43 · official $586.43 (match) · 249 history records