Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb1fe…423a world 510 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,203 (+3%) realized +$3,201 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%215W / 263L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days−$127
14 days−$7,254
30 days−$5,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$929
finance 21% +$732
other 18% +$1,004
politics 6% −$602
tech 5% −$1,343
sports 1% +$15
economics 1% +$592
weather 0% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 32% -12.7%
≤30d 190 -30.5% -37.1% 31% 23% -23.2%
≤90d 404 -7.3% -16.2% 42% 32% -9.4%
all 478 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 33% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 24% -17.2%
15% -27.6% 17% -25.2%
20% -34.7% 13% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$65 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$2,458
Realized+$3,201
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses215 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions32
Markets (closed)478 / 510
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 34¢ 66¢ $377 $730 +$353 (+94%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 13¢ 12¢ $446 $398 −$48 (-11%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 42¢ 62¢ $135 $198 +$63 (+47%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $129 $167 +$38 (+30%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 20¢ 9¢ $311 $139 −$172 (-55%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 5¢ 5¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $180 $110 −$70 (-39%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 21¢ 30¢ $51 $75 +$24 (+48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $70 $74 +$3 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 10¢ 12¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $36 $68 +$32 (+88%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $44 $41 −$2 (-6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 23¢ 20¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 4¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $60 $31 −$29 (-49%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $66 $25 −$41 (-62%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $137 $14 −$122 (-89%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 1¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-56%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 74¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+370%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $65 −$14 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $108 −$104 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $88 −$22 -25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$42 +43%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $589 +$312 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $426 −$146 -34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $128 −$22 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $528 −$91 -17%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 11 $325 −$104 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $221 −$215 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$61 +152%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $203 +$107 +53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$41 +20%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $141 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $170 +$59 +35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$33 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$15 -15%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$12 -65%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $33 +$36 +108%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 −$61 -96%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $70 +$28 +41%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 09 $124 −$14 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$18 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $156 +$120 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $272 −$26 -10%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 09 $195 −$70 -36%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$12 -49%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $96 −$4 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $406 −$52 -13%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $32 −$31 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $84 −$49 -58%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $57 −$56 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $650 +$246 +38%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 08 $125 +$145 +116%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $200 +$82 +41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $96 +$18 +19%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $64 −$62 -97%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 07 $221 −$68 -31%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $51 7m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 41m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 41m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $169 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $58 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $105 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $180 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 18h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 22h
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $40 25h
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $55 40h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $40 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $270 40h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $23 40h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $17 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $71 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 46h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,458.44 · official $2,459.19 (match) · 3500 history records