Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb202…04ad sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$280 (+6%) realized +$284 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$563
other 35% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +16.9% +5.7% 90% 70% -4.3%
≤30d 20 +16.9% +5.7% 90% 70% -4.3%
≤90d 20 +16.9% +5.7% 90% 70% -4.3%
all 20 +16.9% +5.7% 90% 70% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 70% -4.3%
10% -4.4% 55% -13.4%
15% -13.6% 35% -21.8%
20% -22.1% 10% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$440 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $222 $221 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 +$27 +27%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $250 +$72 +29%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $169 +$55 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $199 +$26 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $49 +$21 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$23 +34%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $99 +$7 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $243 +$127 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $399 +$19 +5%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $352 +$65 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $94 +$12 +13%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $302 +$144 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $380 +$270 +71%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $264 +$115 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 −$679 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $199 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $136 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $224 1h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $100 8h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $100 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $100 8h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $150 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $224 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $226 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $199 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $169 11h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 41¢ $49 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $12 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $37 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 32h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 97¢ $107 32h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 90¢ $99 35h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $69 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $201 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $370 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $118 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $418 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $399 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $124 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $94 41h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 84¢ $352 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $446 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $302 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.37 · official $549.40 (match) · 46 history records