Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb203…3b77 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-12%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$66
sports 48% −$130
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 48% -16.3%
≤30d 23 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 48% -16.3%
≤90d 23 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 48% -16.3%
all 23 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 48% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 48% -16.3%
10% +21.2% 48% -24.3%
15% +9.5% 43% -31.6%
20% -1.3% 39% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 +$51 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $345 −$338 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$45 +74%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$18 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$69 +170%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$118 +1148%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $345 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 30h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records