Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb204…a61c world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$2
crypto 24% +$3
other 21% −$5
world 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 15 +11.7% +1.1% 67% 20% -9.6%
≤90d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 65% 18% -9.9%
all 18 -1.2% -10.7% 61% 17% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 17% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 17% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 11% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage147d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 27 $51 −$1 -2%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 27 $79 −$6 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $18 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $47 −$4 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 30 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1 $0 +2%
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 30 $4 $0 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $5 +$5 +104%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $93 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $50 1h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $73 1h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $34 46h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $45 46h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 81¢ $51 46h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 46h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 89¢ $26 46h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL No 95¢ $27 46h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $56 46h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 95¢ $27 12d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $26 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 12d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $56 12d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $2 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $26 12d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 64¢ $2 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $25 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $42 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $47 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $7 28d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $1 28d
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $4 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 52d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.43 · official $111.43 (match) · 66 history records