Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb206…1b3b other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 24% −$10
sports 16% +$3
tech 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage127d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $472 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $413 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $224 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $254 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $290 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $440 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $453 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $296 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 10 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $298 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $299 23d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 23d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 25d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 30d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $246 41d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $246 42d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $254 42d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $254 42d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $197 42d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $197 44d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $218 45d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $218 45d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $227 45d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $227 45d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $267 46d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $267 46d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $278 46d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $278 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $199 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $199 47d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 47d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $221 47d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 47d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 47d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $199 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 366 history records