Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb207…c751 crypto 1344 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (277 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$66,479 (-101%) realized −$66,641 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%663W / 502L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day276.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$32,830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (277 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 902 +4.3% -5.6% 48% 48% +20.1%
≤30d 1165 +23.5% +11.7% 57% 57% +29.3%
≤90d 1165 +23.5% +11.7% 57% 57% +29.3%
all 1165 +23.5% +11.7% 57% 57% +29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover276.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 57% +29.3%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 54% +16.9%
15% -8.8% 54% +5.6%
20% -17.7% 54% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$31 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized−$66,641
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses663 / 502
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1165 / 1344
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day276.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 45¢ 76¢ $202 $340 +$137 (+68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $202 $227 +$25 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $202 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $202 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $202 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $80 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $202 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $202 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $180 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $202 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $202 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $202 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $85 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.46 · official $542.25 · 3500 history records