Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb209…b744 sports 726 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,027 (+12%) realized +$14,034 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%419W / 298L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1,614est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$980
7 days+$2,487
14 days+$3,088
30 days+$7,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$6,928
crypto 15% −$10
other 2% +$359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 +51.5% +37.1% 55% 49% -3.7%
≤30d 548 +29.7% +17.3% 51% 46% -2.9%
≤90d 717 +21.8% +10.2% 58% 37% -4.0%
all 717 +21.8% +10.2% 58% 37% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 37% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.4% 34% -13.2%
15% -10.0% 30% -21.6%
20% -18.8% 26% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$130 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$14,034
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses419 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,614
Open positions6
Markets (closed)717 / 726
History coverage81d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Uwinks 79¢ 76¢ $151 $145 −$6 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Ground Zero 65¢ 58¢ $105 $94 −$10 (-10%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 68¢ $59 $74 +$16 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 58¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs HyperSpirit (+3.5) Sashi Esport 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 274 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $58 +$15 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $500 +$100 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 +$8 +148%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $9 +$11 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,892 −$78 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $426 −$99 -23%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$12 +36%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $67 −$65 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $84 +$246 +292%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $0 +$5 +1845%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $1,304 +$739 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $128 +$37 +29%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 0 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League Jun 14 $109 +$20 +18%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$62 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $272 −$73 -27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $259 −$99 -38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +65%
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $74 +$42 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
UnionTouargaSports leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $989 +$988 +100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $336 −$329 -98%
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +97%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $481 −$473 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 81¢ $41 12m
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 78¢ $8 12m
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 80¢ $80 14m
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks 71¢ $23 19m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 65¢ $106 35m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs HyperSpirit (+3.5) BUY Sashi Esport 42¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $20 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $72 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Geekay Esports 14¢ $1 16h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Geekay Esports 13¢ $1 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $19 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $3 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $3 18h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 19h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 58¢ $3 21h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 45¢ $9 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $1,814 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1,892 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $59 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $5 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $1 24h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors $27 24h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors $40 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $177 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $1 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $0 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.72 · official $318.40 (match) · 2718 history records