Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb20b…d46e other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-8%) realized −$62 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%16W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days−$104
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$96
sports 14% −$3
politics 7% −$9
crypto 6% +$24
world 4% −$3
economics 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 40% -5.4%
≤30d 88 -29.1% -35.9% 18% 16% -24.0%
≤90d 88 -29.1% -35.9% 18% 16% -24.0%
all 88 -29.1% -35.9% 18% 16% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 16% -24.0%
10% -42.0% 12% -31.3%
15% -47.6% 8% -37.9%
20% -52.7% 7% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses16 / 72
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)88 / 99
History coverage25d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+87%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 29 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 +$2 +17%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 29 $5 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$4 -36%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 +$2 +40%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 +$1 +7%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 +$2 +34%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 28 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $5 +$13 +252%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 21 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 20 $1 $0 -30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $6 −$4 -62%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 1h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 1h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 14h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 32h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 36h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 39h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 39h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 39h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 39h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 40h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 40h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 40h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 40h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 40h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 40h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 40h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.62 · official $146.63 (match) · 232 history records