Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb20b…9afe sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-19%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$26
other 21% −$2
world 4% −$7
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 46% 38% -22.2%
≤30d 34 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 32% -24.9%
≤90d 36 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 31% -28.7%
all 36 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 31% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 31% -28.7%
10% -35.7% 28% -35.5%
15% -41.9% 19% -41.8%
20% -47.6% 14% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 −$14 -75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -74%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $7 −$5 -74%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $14 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -63%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $3 +$2 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 +$4 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Emiliana Arango vs Ella Seidel May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $11 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.09 · official $3.86 (match) · 74 history records