Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb20f…bebe world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 27% $0
other 19% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 43% 14% -8.7%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 7% -9.2%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage257d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 +$4 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $44 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $7 −$1 -15%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Dec 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 18 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $27 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $42 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $44 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records