Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb217…61b9 sports 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%190W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$84
14 days−$11
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$40
other 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -25.6% -32.7% 38% 38% -27.3%
≤30d 237 -2.8% -12.1% 49% 49% -9.7%
≤90d 395 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 46% -11.2%
all 395 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 46% -11.2%
10% -22.0% 41% -19.7%
15% -29.5% 34% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses190 / 205
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)395 / 399
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 71¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) INOX Division 76¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk SELL Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $5 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Anastasia Kulikova 100¢ $5 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $6 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 68¢ $3 2h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 74¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 37¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 37¢ $2 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 53¢ $3 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 61¢ $3 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $7 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge SELL Elena Micic 100¢ $10 3h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 63¢ $3 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 83¢ $4 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 83¢ $4 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $2 4h
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $2 5h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 58¢ $3 5h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 58¢ $3 5h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $2 5h
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska SELL Yastremska 50¢ $2 5h
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska SELL Yastremska 49¢ $2 5h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 37¢ $2 6h
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $5 6h
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $5 6h
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $5 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $15.95 (match) · 890 history records