Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb218…b68f crypto 17 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-17%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 33% -39.2%
≤30d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -30.5%
≤90d 17 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -30.5%
all 17 -23.1% -30.4% 41% 41% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 41% -30.5%
10% -37.1% 35% -37.1%
15% -43.1% 35% -43.2%
20% -48.7% 35% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +173%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records